The annualized increase in the access rate is calculated as the difference between the access rate in year 2 and that in year 1, divided by the number of years to annualize the value:

(Access Rate Year 2–Access Rate Year 1) / (Year 2–Year 1)

This approach takes population growth into account by working with the final national access rate. Projected access rates, access deficits, and fuel use can be estimated using the GHEM, where uncertainty increases the further into the future estimates are calculated, reflecting how country trends may shift based on how unsettled they were during the data period. 

Projections are hypothetical scenarios in which no new policies or interventions (positive or otherwise) take place, and as such are useful as baseline scenarios for comparing the effect of interventions.